Bitcoin Bulls Hoping For Lift-Off Today
BTC Testing Key Resistance
Today could be a very important day for Bitcoin bulls if we see fresh weakness in the latest US jobs report. The Bitcoin market weathered the recent storm of resurgent September tightening expectations rather well with the futures market correcting around 6% from the August highs and returning promptly too that peak amidst the weakening of tightening expectations this week.
NFP Expectations
Against this backdrop, the market could be on the verge of a fresh breakout higher if we see today’s NFP print on the soft side. On the numbers front, Wall Street is looking for the headline NFP release to show 55k jobs growth up from -23k prior. Any undershooting of that target should be enough to keep September tightening expectations skewed lower, leading USD lower accordingly, and risk assets to breakout. The scale of the rally (and impact on rate expectations) will depend on the scope of the miss of course but with market pricing for a September hike currently at 50%, a miss today should send that pricing down to around 30%/40%, allowing BTC to push firmly higher.
Dovish Fed Comments
Dovish comments from two leading Fed members this week have poured cold water on the bullish USD shift we saw post-Jackson Hole and any fresh weakness in today’s jobs data should be enough to sink USD for now, certainly into the upcoming CPI release.
Technical Views
BTC
The rally in BTC has taken the market back to the August highs, just shy of the May highs around $83,385. This level has been a key pivot for the market over the last year and a breach today could mark an important shift in sentiment, opening the way for a broader rally towards the $94,730 level next.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% and 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.