S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 20/10/26 

MONTHLY OPEX

***QUOTING ES1!(Z CONTRACT LEVLES) FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***

MONTHLY-WEEKLY& DAILY LEVELS

MONTHLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7440/7400

MONTHLY RANGE RES 7960 SUP 7663

WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7800/10

WEEKLY RANGE RES 7851/22 SUP 7555/86

DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 7740/50

GLOBEX RANGE SUP 7709/768 RES 7768/97

GAMMA FLIP 7743

DELTA FLIP 7668

CALL WALLS 7786/7819

PUT WALLS 7720/7683

DAILY STRUCTURE - OTFL - 7803

WEEKLY STRUCTURE - BALANCE - 7897/7575

MONTHLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7542

VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 17.7  

VVIX-to-VIX The ratio of 5.80 is near the high end of the historical range, suggesting that while fears are easing, institutions maintain steady VIX option hedges, indicating cautiousness.

PRIMARY TRADES & TARGETS 

LONG ON ACCEPTANCE ABOVE DBBZ TARGET WBBZ TRAGTE WEKLY RANGE RES ATH’S

***ADDITIONAL SETUPS & TARGETS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE CHARTS***

(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)

SPX PUT/CALL RATIO 1.19 (The numbers reflect options traded during the current session.) A put-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered bullish, and a put-call ratio above 1.0 is generally considered bearish.

JHEQX Upside cap (~7,920–7,950): Dealer gamma hedging at this call strike creates resistance, with market makers likely selling futures into strength and limiting volatility. Downside cushion (~7,270): If SPX drops 5% into Q4, long put gamma may force dealers to buy futures as the index falls, helping stabilize prices. Expiration: December 31, 2026. Strong pinning effects are likely near key strikes into year-end expiration.

DEC2025 OPEX to DEC2026 OPEX is 945 points giving us a range of [5889,7779]

Notes On Structure Implications

Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favouring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.

One-Time Framing Higher (OTFH): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.

One-Time Framing Lower (OTFL): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.

GOLDMAN SACHS FICC & EQUITY TRADING DESK VIEWS

THE TAKE: RELIEF RALLY PAUSES HIGH-VELOCITY TECH SUPPLY AS DEALERS FLIP BACK LONG GAMMA

US equity benchmarks kicked off the week with a calm, relief-driven rebound, led by mega-cap technology and growth indices (Nasdaq-100 +1.17% to 29,529; S&P 500 +0.41% to 7,690). The advance reflected a distinct cessation of the aggressive, high-velocity institutional supply that dominated floor flows last week.

As major indices recovered from Friday's acute drawdown, market structure experienced a crucial transition: the options market shifted back into a pocket of long dealer gamma. This transition comes on the heels of a historic 5-day dealer gamma decline (the largest in 4 years), restoring a structural volatility cushion to the index level.

Despite the spot relief, hedge fund conviction remains at year-to-date lows as accounts grapple with a complex matrix of macro and micro uncertainties—including Q3 earnings execution, US midterms, elevated bond yields/credit spreads, ROIC sustainability, and long-term 2028 supply/power constraints.

MARKET SUMMARY & ASSET BREAKDOWN

  • S&P 500 (SPX): Closed at 7,690.00 (+0.41%) | MOC $7.9B to SELL | VIX down -7.90% to 18.41

  • Nasdaq-100 (NDX): Closed at 29,529.00 (+1.17%) | Outperformed on relief-buying and short covering in Tech

  • Russell 2000 (RUT): Closed at 2,731.00 (+0.36%) | Lagged tech recovery as 10-Year yields edged higher

  • Dow Jones (DJI): Closed at 51,966.00 (-0.07%) | Slight drag from traditional industrial/value components

  • US 10-Year Treasury: Yield up +6 bps to 5.13% | Yields pushed back above 5.10% following recent duration buying

  • WTI Crude: Price up +2.25% to $103.69/bbl | Resumed upward march past $103/bbl on Middle East supply watch

  • Gold: Price down -0.61% to $4,140.00/oz | Consolidated under real rate and USD pressure (DXY 101.99)

  • Bitcoin: Price up +1.14% to $81,789.00 | Bounced in line with growth risk assets

INSTITUTIONAL FLOWS & EARNINGS WATCHLIST

  • Trading Floor Activity (3/10 Rating):

    • Execution floor volume was muted with benign flow skews across both Asset Managers and Hedge Funds.

    • Long-Only (LO) accounts maintained mild sell skews in Semiconductors, but selling intensity was markedly reduced relative to late last week, accompanied by minimal fresh long buying.

  • AI & Tech Earnings Acceleration Week:

    • Tuesday: SpaceX (SPCX).

    • Wednesday: Meta Platforms (META), IBM (IBM), Lam Research (LRCX).

    • Thursday: Western Digital (WDC), Bloom Energy (BE), Blackstone (BX).

DERIVATIVES & VOLATILITY SURFACE COLOR

  • Volatility & Skew Compression: Following Friday's historic VIX call surge, short-dated SPX implied volatility and options skew were heavily offered right from the opening bell, maintaining compressed levels throughout the session.

  • Dealer Gamma Shift: The spot recovery pushed dealers back into net long gamma territory, reinstalling a volatility-dampening buffer after last week's -$5.9B gamma drain.

  • Upside Option Restructuring: Desk observed index vol selling and limited appetite to chase linear upside. Tactical option flows centered on rolling up short-dated upside calls in Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and SK Hynix (SKHY).

  • Featured Volatility Setup: The QQQ Friday Straddle is priced at 2.0%, capturing Meta's Wednesday post-close earnings. The desk favors owning QQQ or META gamma as offering a highly compelling risk/reward profile into the print.